军机飞行安全预警的集对分析-可变模糊方法

On the SPA-VFS method for flying safety early-warning for military airplanes

为了深化军机飞行安全管理,需开展飞行安全预警工作,而安全预警方法是影响军机飞行安全预警结果是否合理可靠的关键因素。从"人、机、环境、组织因素"4个方面构建了军机飞行安全预警的指标体系;用集对分析方法中综合联系度代替可变模糊集方法中的相对差异度,提出了飞行安全预警的集对分析-可变模糊方法。运用集对分析-可变模糊方法对4个样本进行预警分析,并将其结果与模糊综合评价和灰色综合评价的预警结果进行对比分析。3种方法对样本2、3、4的预警结果一致,而对样本1集对分析-可变模糊方法的预警结果为Ⅲ级,模糊综合评价法和灰色综合评价法的预警结果为Ⅱ级。通过分析可知,样本1的综合安全状态倾向于Ⅲ级。结果表明,集对分析-可变模糊方法的结果更为合理,方法是可行的、有效的。

The paper is intended to bring about its study on the flight safety management of military airplanes by enhancing effective early-warning method. For the said purpose,we have made an exploration of the key reasonable and reliable factors that may influence the flight safety. In order to deepen our study of the flight safety management problem for such military airplanes,it is necessary to pay sufficient attention to the study of the early-warning methods for guaranteeing the flight safety of such airplanes.First of all,when taking into full account the aviation flight system,it is necessary to remind us that it is a complicated socialtechnical system including such factors,as human operation,the aviation apparatus,the environment change and the inside of the aircraft and the airport organizational system. It is just on the basis of comprehensive consideration of all the factors included,we have established a flight safety early-warning index system from the aspects of the aforementioned factors,which comprise 4 level- 1 indices and 13 level- 2 indices. And,secondly,a new method for the flight safety early-warning,known as the SPA-VFS method,has been proposed based on the set pair analysis（ SPA） and the theory of the variable fuzzy sets（ VFS）,in which we have identified and determined the relative membership of VFS by the synthetic connection degrees of the SPA so as to simplify the analysis process,in which we have worked out the weights of the early-warning indices via the analytical hierarchy process（ AHP）. And,then,the proposed SPA- VFS method has been oriented to verify its feasibility and validity for the flight safety early-warning of the 4 Flying Corps. Furthermore,we have made a comparison of the results of SPA- VFS method with the results of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation（ FCE） and grey comprehensive evaluation（ GCE）. And,consequently,we have confirmed that the results for Sample 2,Sample 3 and Sample 4 of the three methods turn out to be the same. To be exact,the evaluation results of SPA- VFS for Sample 1 ranks Ⅲ（ Slightly dangerous） whereas those for FCE and GCE for Sample 1 rank Ⅱ（ Basically safe）. However,through the analysis,the comprehensive safety situation of Sample 1 can only be attributed to rankⅢ. Thus,it can be seen that the results of SPA- VFS method prove to be reasonable,feasible for the actual safety early-warning necessity.