我国大陆地区肾综合征出血热时空分布及空间聚集性规律

Spatiotemporal distribution and spatial clustering of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in the mainland of China

目的分析我国大陆地区肾综合征出血热发病的时间与空间特点及空间聚集性、聚集区域随着时间变化的规律。方法采用空间自相关分析(即Moran's I和Getis G指数)描述我国大陆地区2006年至2010年肾综合征出血热发病的时间、空间特征,并对肾综合征出血热监测数据在市(区)级尺度上进行全局和局部空间聚集性分析。结果肾综合征出血热的发病每年均有两个发病高峰(6月和11月),在全国市(区)级尺度上的全局自相关分析2006年至2010年的Moran's I系数分别为0.0540、0.038 2、0.024 8、0.033 5和0.024 5(P值均<0.05);局部自相关分析显示高聚集的区域主要分布于山东省南部、江苏省、海南省和陕西省;逐年发病热点区域主要分布有变化。结论我国大陆地区肾综合征出血热的发病存在季节周期性,发病整体上呈现较弱的聚集性,聚集区域从海南省、山东省、江苏省、安徽省等地区逐渐转移到陕西省及周边省份地区。

Objective To explore the temporal,spatial characteristics and the changing trend of clustering of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome（ HFRS） in China. Methods The spatial auto-correlation analysis（ Moran＇s I and Getis G） were used to conduct spatial statistical analyses of HFRS surveillance data during 2006-2010 in China at the regional level. Results The incidence of HFRS had two peaks（ in June and November） in each year. Global Moran＇s I coefficients were 0. 054 0,0. 038 2,0. 024 8,0. 033 5 and 0. 024 5 from2006 to 2010,respectively（ all P〈0. 05）. The local autocorrelation analysis showed that high-high cluster mainly distributed in Shandong,Jiangsu,Hainan and Shaanxi provinces. The main locations of HFRS hotspots gradually changed year by year. Conclusion A seasonal periodicity with two peaks per year were found in HFRS in China. The spatial clustering of HFRS incidence from 2006 to 2010 was low-level and clustering areas were changing from mainly distributed in Hainan,Shandong,Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces to Shaanxi,Ningxia and surrounding provinces.