信息化背景下我国图书出版业空间计量经济分析——以1998年—2013年为例

Analysis on the spatial econometric analysis of China's book publishing industry under the background of informatization from 1998 to 2013

在数字出版快速发展的背景下,研究图书出版业数量和变化模式对行业发展战略与规划具有重要的现实意义。本文采用聚类分析、空间计量、Arc GIS制图等方法,对我国图书出版业省级面板数据进行处理,从空间和时间两个维度分析我国图书出版业的演变趋势和影响其发展的因素。结果发现:1.从时间演变看,近15年来各地区的图书出版业不大,其中人口大省位居前列;2.从出版的区域分布上看,经济发达的地区多于经济落后的地区;南方地区的图书出版量逐步地赶上甚至超过北方地区;3.从图书出版量的发展水平上看,图书出版业的发展水平在缓慢地提升;4.空间交互作用是图书出版业的重要影响因素,信息化、全球化和经济发展对图书出版业作用明显,而教育和工资水平对图书出版业作用较小。

Under the background of rapid development of digital publishing, researching the number of book publishing industry and change pattern has important practical significance for industry development strategy and planning. In this paper, adopting clustering analysis, spatial measurement, Arc GIS mapping and other methods to deal with China＇s book publishing provincial panel data From two dimensions of space and time, analysis of the evolution of China＇s book publishing industry trends and factors affecting its development. The results showed that ：（1） From the time evolution, in the last 15 years, the region＇s book publishing industry is not big, which is the most populous province in the forefront; （2） From the perspective of the regional distribution of publishing, economy developed areas more economically backward areas; south of the publishing amount is gradually catch up with even more than the north area; （3） From the level of the development of book publishing, the development of the book publishing industry is slowly improving; （4） Spatial interaction is an important factor in book publishing industry, Informatization, globalization, and economic development has an obvious effect on book publishing while education and wages have smaller effect on book publishing.