独生子女性别会影响父母的二胎生育意愿吗?——基于中国综合社会调查(CGSS)数据的研究

Does Only Child's Gender Affect the Fertility Desire of Only-child Parents to Bear a Second Child?——A Study from Chinese General Social Survey(CGSS)

通过对中国综合社会调查(CGSS)2012年的数据研究发现,独生子女(第一胎)性别可以影响父母的二胎生育意愿,独生男孩对父母的二胎生育意愿产生显著的负向影响,而这种影响对城市居民和父亲更显著。本文通过交互项分析得出收入、父亲抚育子女时间、教育开支和房价是独生子女性别影响居民二胎生育意愿的因素,居民收入和父亲抚育子女时间的提高可以显著促进独生男孩家庭的二胎生育意愿,教育支出和房价则会抑制二胎生育意愿,其中教育支出的抑制效应随着年龄增大而增大,房价只对45岁以上群体才产生显著影响。因此,提高收入、增加育龄人群闲暇时间、稳定房价、减轻育儿成本特别是教育支出有利于二胎政策的全面顺利实施。

Based on data from Chinese General Social Survey（CGSS） ,our research found that the only child＇ s gender can affect the fertility desire of only-child parents to bear a second child. The fact that a one-child family with a boy has obvious negative effect on parents＇ fertility desire to bear the second child is extremely prominent for urban residents and fathers. In addition, through analyzing interaction item we draw a conclusion that income, fathers who actively engage in raisingtheir children, educational expendi- tures and housing prices are influencing factors why gender affects the fertility desire of only-child parents to bear a second child. Increasing resident income and the fathers＇ time spending in child can significantly improve fertility desire of bearing a second child. However, educational expenditures and housing prices in- hibit this wish. Besides, the inhibitory effect of education expenditures increases with age and house prices has a significant impact on the group over 45 years old. Therefore, increasing resident income, leisure time of reproductive aged population, stabilizing the houses prices and reducing childcare costs especially in ed- ucational expenditures will definitely benefit the successful implement of the two-child policy.