日本长期通货紧缩的形成机理与政策警示

Formation Mechanism of Long- term Deflation in Japan and Its Enlightenment for China

泡沫经济崩溃后,日本经济陷入长期通货紧缩,其政策根源在于凯恩斯主义指导下的长期大规模公共投资。长期大规模公共投资导致日本巨额国债负担,巨额国债积累与老龄化背景下的高额养老金支出引发严重的财政赤字,迫使日本政府不得不继续大举国债。长期的经济低迷、民间投资不足和零利率政策,诱使大量银行资本和保险资金流入国债市场,并逐渐形成两种脱离实体经济的资本循环。民间储蓄、金融资本与国债市场之间的货币循环流动,引发实体经济中货币流量减少,物价下降,并最终形成长期通货紧缩。日本长期通货紧缩是民间投资不足的背景下政府大力压缩公共投资而引起的供求失衡的货币表象。

After the collapse of the bubble economy, Japan fell into long - term deflation. From a policy perspective, the deflation has roots in the long - term and large -scale public investment under the guid- ance of Keynesian Economics. Long - term and large - scale public investment has led to huge burden on Japan Government Bonds. At the background of accumulation of JGB and the aging population, high ex- penditure on pension has caused serious financial deficit, which has forced Japanese government to issue more debt continuously. The long- term economic depression, insufficient private investment and zero - interest - rate policy, induce a large number of bank capital and insurance funds into the government bond market. Gradually, there are two capital cycles which formed out of the real economy. The monetary circuit among private savings, finance capital and the government bond market, triggered the reduction of the currency flow in the real economy and the decrease in price, and then it caused the long - term defla- tion. To sum up, Japan＇s deflation is a currency appearance, which shows imbalance between supply and demand, and which is caused by the government＇s strong compression in the public investment when the private investment is insufficient.