基于陈述性与显示性偏好联合方法的旅游需求模型及应用

Travel Demand Model Estimation and Its Application Based on The Combined Stated and Revealed Preference Methods

旅游环境质量是影响旅游需求的重要因素。然而,对于旅游需求函数模型的构建大多关注经济指标,加之传统研究方法的局限性,使得对这一问题的研究仍存在较大空白。因此,为揭示多重环境属性变化对旅游需求的具体影响,本文采用陈述性与显示性偏好联合方法对旅游需求模型进行构建,以弥补传统旅行成本法在数据容量和使用范围上的不足。并引入选择实验数据收集模式和可视化研究方法,提高了数据的收集效率和准确性。研究发现:旅游环境变化对需求价格弹性的影响在统计上显著,而且会改变旅游函数的截距项;拥挤程度的降低对旅游需求的负面影响较弱,垃圾数量和水质改善对旅游需求的正向影响显著;当前大连滨海浴场的消费者剩余为564元/人次,环境整体改善使游客平均旅行次数上升1.2次/年,而消费者剩余的增量为1273元每人每年。

Environmental quality is one of the important factors which has a strong influence on the tourismdemand. However, traditional tourism demand models pay much attention to economic factors only, giving lessconsiderations in valuing environmental quality, and because the limited availability of appropriate researchmethodology which can be used, this has caused a big shortage in this study topic. In order to effectively improvethe supply of tourism products, it is essential to identify the specific impact of each environmental factor changeon coastal tourism demand since the environment quality is a critical element to influence the travel demand.However, traditional estimation techniques of tourism demand have a lot of limitations on those impacts analysis.In this paper we build travel demand model using joint stated and revealed preference approach to make up thosedeficiencies of traditional travel cost method as to the survey designs and effective data usages. Moreover, thisstudy applies choice experiment data design combined with visualization methods to enhance the efficiency andaccuracy of data collection. The results indicate that the combined changes of environment quality and price playa statistically significant role in the travel demand though in a small magnitude of coefficient, and they also alterthe intercept of tourism demand. Congestion reduction has a weak effect on travel demand, and sea water qualityimprovement has significant positive effect on tourism demand. Currently, the consumer surplus in Dalian coastalbeach areas attain 564 yuan / person; the overall environment quality enhancement can increase the number oftravel demand by 1.2 times / year, which can be converted into 1,273 yuan per person per year of consumersurplus increment.