清开灵等清热解毒类注射剂的使用预测及预算影响分析

On Budget Impact and Use Prediction of Injections for Heat-clearing and Detoxifying

目的:通过对清热解毒类注射剂进行使用预测及预算影响分析,为临床选择经济适当的药品提供依据。方法:利用指数平滑法,对清热解毒类注射剂药品费用和使用量进行预测。构建预算影响分析模型,测算两种市场情形下的药品费用。结果:按现有市场推算,2015年中国清热解毒类注射剂总费用约150亿元,2020年将增至227.79亿元,年平均增幅8.71%;2015年中国清热解毒类注射剂总使用量为67.71(百万人/天),2020年将增至98.26(百万人/天),年平均增幅7.73%。在假设市场情形下,6年共可节约455.50亿元药品费用。结论:中国清热解毒类注射剂年度总费用及使用量增长趋势明显。如果2015-2020年8种清热解毒注射剂的市场用量份额能够恢复到2008年的水平,由于清开灵注射剂相对较低的日治疗费用,将能有效降低药品费用。

Objective： To predict the use of traditional Chinese medicine injections for heat-clearing and detoxifying and analyze the budget impact so as to provide scientific references for reimbursement formulary, reimbursement price along with therapeutic regimen, and to promote rational allocation of health resources. Methods： Exponential smoothing module was applied to predict the expense and amount of injections for heatclearing and detoxifying. Budget impact analysis model was constructed to measure the expected changes in two markets. Results： In the status quo scenario, the expense of injections for heat-clearing and detoxifying was 15 billion in 2015 and will be 22.78 billion in 2020, with an average annual growth rate of 8.71%. The amount of injections for heat-clearing and detoxifying will change from 67.71 million people/day in 2015 to 98.26 million people/day in 2020, with an average annual growth rate of 7.73%. In the new market share scenario, the total budget savings were expected to be 45.55 billion Yuan from 2015 to 2020. Conclusion： The expense and amount of injections for heat-clearing and detoxifying tend to increase obviously, which brings huge burden to patients and medical insurance fund. If the market shares of 2015-2020 restored the level of 2008, the expense would be enormously decreased due to the price advantage of Qingkailing injection.