中国重点国有林区转型发展的影响因素分析

Analysis of Factors Influencing Economic Transition and Development in Chinese Key State-Owned Forest Region

重点国有林区改革进入全面实施阶段的新背景下,以黑龙江省国有重点林区为对象,运用2003~2014年林区多变量面板数据,通过构建主成分回归方程,对国有林区转型发展的影响因素展开深入分析。结果表明：劳动生产率（0.3467）对林区转型发展影响最显著;林业职工素质（0.0917）、多种经营比重（0.0784）及林业投资规模（0.1768）是重点国有林区转型发展的重要驱动力;林区职工的社会保障水平（-0.0964）及人均GDP（-0.1938）对林区转型发展进程有一定的消极影响。根据研究结果,提出继续加大林业投资规模及提高投资收益、改善林区劳动生产率、促进各驱动因素协同发展等加快和保障重点国有林区转型发展的对策建议。

Under a new background of key state-owned forest region reform entering a full operation phase, it analyzed the factors influencing the reform by constructing the principal component regression equations, based on the multivariable panel data of the key state-owned forest region in Heilongjiang Province from 2003 to 2014. The results showed that labor productivity is the most distinctive factor influencing the transformation and development. The quality of forestry workers, the proportion of diversified industries and the scale of forestry investment are the important driving force for the transformation and development. The social security level of forestry workers and the per capita GDP have a negative effect on the transformation and development. Based on the above results, it put forward these suggestions aiming at speeding up the transformation and development, which included increasing the forestry investment＇s scale and income continuously, improving the labor productivity and promoting the different factors coordinated development.