中国电力投资与电力消费的协整模型分析

Co-integration Model Analysis of the Electric Power Investment and Electricity Consumption in China

本文利用1998年到2014年中国电力投资与电力消费数据并结合Eviews计量软件进行了中国电力投资与消费协整模型分析,并应用Granger因果分析、脉冲响应、方差分解分析和Johansen检验等协整分析方法实证研究了这二者之间关系。结果发现:文中给出的模型是有效的;中国电力消费是电力投资的Granger原因,并且二者之间存在长期的协整关系。文章最终给出了误差修正后的中国电力投资与电力消费的长期协整关系表达式。

This paper uses the data of power investment and electricity consumption in China from 2014 to 1998 and Eviews measurement software to analyze the co-integration model of power investment and consumption in China, and uses Granger causality analysis, impulse response, variance decomposition analysis, Johansen test and other co-integration analysis methods to study the relationship between the two. The results show that the model presented in this paper is effective;the electricity consumption in China is the Granger reason of the electric power investment, and there is a long-term co-integration relationship between the two. In the end, the paper gives an expression of the correctional long-term co-integration relationship between power investment and electricity consumption.