金砖国家参与国际货币体系改革的“挤车困境”思考

Reflections on the "Jostle-to-Board-the-Bus Dilemma" for BRICS Participating in the Reform of the International Monetary System

国际金融危机后,世界经济力量格局发生变化,美国主导的国际货币体系亟待改革,金砖国家则成为国际货币体系改革的重要参与者,但在参与过程中面临与体系内发达国家和体系外其他国家同时博弈的困境,也即"挤车困境"。产生"挤车困境"的根本原因是新参与者身份的逐渐转变导致利益变化,其破解之道在于以不完全信息下的"身份融合"战略替代完全信息下的"身份转变"思维。包括中国在内的金砖国家在参与国际货币体系改革的过程中,既要处理好与体系内发达国家尤其是主导国家美国的关系,又要保持与体系外其他国家的联系,以实现"身份融合"。

After the financial crisis, the pattern of the world economic power has undergone an important change and the US-dominated international monetary system is in need of reform.Under this background, the BRICS have become the important participants of the international monetary system reform.They face a dilemma that they have to game with the developed countries within the system and other countries outside the system at the same time in the process, which is called the Jostle-to-board-the-bus dilemma.The essential reason for the dilemma is the identity -transition of the new participants, and the subsequent changes of their interests. A possible solution is following the identity- integration strategy with the incomplete information instead of the identity-transition thinking with the complete information .While participating in the international monetary system reform, the BRICS including China need both to deal well with the developed countries and within the system especially the United States as the leading country and to contact with the counties outside the system, so as to realize the identity-integration.