1976年以来香港入境旅游关系圈变化及指示性

Changes of the Hong Kong inbound tourism relationship circle and its indications since 1976

入境旅游是衡量一个旅游目的地发展和国际化程度的重要标志。本文引入社会学人际关系理论与地理学距离衰减理论相结合,提出入境旅游关系圈(ITRC)的三层结构概念模型:周边圈、洲内圈和洲际圈。随后,以香港为案例提出了香港入境旅游关系圈(HKITRC)概念模型假设与实际HKITRC变化的指示性假设。在1976-2013年香港各入境客源地的旅游统计数据的基础上,利用空间分层与时间分段的方法对40年来实际HKITRC的变化及指示性进行了深入的实证分析。研究结果验证了假设,总结得出了40年来实际HKITRC三层结构和其内部各地区的变化规律,也证明了实际HKITRC变化对签证政策、人口规模、政治归属、文化传统和经济兴衰这5种因素的指示性。研究对学界及业界认识旅游目的地入境旅游关系圈的变化规律及其指示作用有一定启发和现实意义。

The inbound tourism is an important measure for development and internationalization of a tourism destination. By combining the theories of interpersonal relationship from sociology and distance attenuation of geography, we introduced a three-layer structural conceptual model, namely, Inbound Tourism Relationship Circle（ITRC）, which includes the surrounding circle, the intra- continental circle, and the inter- continental circle. In order to illustrate the model, we use Hong Kong as a case study, and built a Hong Kong Inbound Tourism Relationship Circle（HKITRC）. The article puts forward five hypotheses of the main factors that may indicate the changes of the real HKITRC. Then, we conducted an empirical analysis of the changes of real HKITRC and its indications in the past 40 years through spacial and temporal stratified approach, which was based on the Hong Kong tourism statistics from 1976 to 2013 sorted by countries and regions. The results showed the variation of the real HKITRC over the past 40 years. It is also revealed that when the distance of regions to Hong Kong is not the same, the tourism relation between Hong Kong and the Chinese circle becomes closer and closer than that between Hong Kong and the intra- continental circle and the inter- continental circle as well. On the other hand, to the regions that have the same distance to Hong Kong, the level of tourism relation between Hong Kong and the regions within the Chinese circle ranged from high to low as the mainland of China, Taiwan, and Macao; Within the intra- continental circle, it ranked as East Asia, Southeast Asia, and South Asia. With the inter-continental circle, Europe and North America are almost at the same level of relation and the oceanic regions positioned at least. Moreover, the five indications of the changes of the real HKITRC were summarized with examples： the visa policy, the population,the culture, and economic growth. The results of this study not only introduced a new interdisciplinary research perspective to study the inbound tourism, but also provided future research opportunity to enrich the theory and apply the ITRC conceptual model in other destinations and make comparative studies.