基于ESDA分析法的新疆县域经济差异的时空分析

A Spatio-temporal Analysis of Inter-county Economic Differences in Xinjiang Based on the ESAD

研究县域经济发展格局对揭示区域经济发展空间演化机制和实现县域经济的可持续发展具有重要的理论意义。本文基于ESDA(探索性空间数据分析)分析法,探讨了1990年以来新疆县域经济空间格局的演化过程。结果表明:在总体空间格局上,新疆县域经济发展水平呈现很强的空间自相关性,经济发展水平相似的地区在空间上集聚分布,但是这种集聚趋势在2009年以后有所下降。经济热点区域主要分布在天山北坡经济带及其周围,而经济冷点区域则主要分布在南疆的喀什、和田及阿克苏的部分县市。研究期内(1990年—2014年),新疆经济增长空间格局的演化表现出地理集中现象不够明显,经济增长热点区域切换频繁,随机性和不稳定性特点。最后,将新疆经济格局演化的驱动力归结为三个方面:传统自然要素差异、经济区位和区域发展政策。

Studying the pattern of county economic development is extremely important for revealing the evolutionary mechanism of regional economy and achieves the sustainable development of China＇s county economy. Using the ESDA as analysis tools,this article discusses the evolvement of spatial pattern of economy at county level in Xinjiang since the 1990 s. The result shows that at the overall spatial economic framework,the county economy of Xinjiang shows a strong trend of spatial natural correlation. The similar areas cluster in space,however,this trend dropped in 2009. The spatial structure of hot zones were mainly distributed in the belt on the north slope of Tanshan. However,the cold zones converge in the southwest of southern Xinjiang. The development of the spatial economic growth framework is likely to be more stochastic and unstable in the aspect of spatial distribution. Hot zones are changing frequently without obvious appearance of geographical concentration. The driving force of the evolvement of Xinjiang economic framework can be identified through the following aspects,that is,the traditional natural elements,the economic location and the policies on regional development.