基于熵权法和灰色关联法的哈萨克斯坦投资环境评价及预测

The Evaluation and Prediction of Kazakhstan Investment Environment Based on the Entropy Weight Method and Grey Correlation Analysis

本文通过构建投资环境综合指标评价体系,采用熵权法及灰色关联法对哈萨克斯坦2002年—2014年的投资环境进行评价,研究得出:哈萨克斯坦投资环境总体水平除2005年、2008年出现短暂的下降外,总体处于不断优化的趋势;采用移动平均法对未来五年哈萨克斯坦投资环境质量进行预测,结果显示:哈萨克斯坦投资环境质量在2015年、2016年出现一定程度的下降,2017年以后开始回升,因此,需要重点关注经济环境及金融环境的不稳定带来的投资不确定性。

The article through building comprehensive index evaluation system of investment environment,using the entropy weight method and the grey correlation analysis to evaluate the investment environment of Kazakhstan in 2002-2014,studies show that： the overall investment environment level of the kazakhstan have constantly optimize trends,in addition to 2005 and2008. Then adopting to the moving average method to forecast the kazakhstan investment environment over the next five years,according to the results： The investment environment of kazakhstan has a certain degree of decline in 2015 and 2016,it begins to rebound after 2017,it needs to focus on the uncertainty of investment brought by the unstable economic and financial environment.