明清时期中国沿海地区海潮灾害研究

Tide disasters in coastal areas of China during Ming and Qing Dynasties

明清时期是我国的小冰期,也被称为方志时期,各种自然灾害频发且记录丰富。基于明清文献资料,重建了1368-1911年中国沿海地区海潮灾害的时空分布特征,解析了潮灾的发生原因及其社会影响和应对措施。结果表明:(1)在时间上,潮灾年份上的分布清代较明代更为频繁,月份上的分布较为集中于5-9月,且以7月为最,长期趋势总体上呈现缓慢波动上升,小波分析指出潮灾存在长短不一的周期;(2)在空间上,潮灾发生频次和热点区域呈现明显的地域差异,具有一定的集中性,主要发生在苏浙沪一带;(3)潮灾发生与El Nino、太阳活动和蝗灾暴发有较为密切的关联:El Nino和太阳黑子通过影响台风在我国的登陆最终影响潮灾发生,潮灾通过影响水系格局及水文变迁进而影响蝗灾发生,与蝗灾在年份上对应良好;(4)潮灾危及沿海地区人民的生命财产安全,影响沿海经济的发展,民间大多采用筑堤及筑闸坝、防潮墩和围堰等方法来阻挡海潮灾害的侵袭。

Ming and Qing Dynasties, known as the local Chronicles Period of China, belong to the Little Ice Age during which natural disasters were frequently occurring and were well registered in historical documents. Based on historical records in Ming and Qing Dynasties, this paper reconstructs the spatiotemporal characteristics of tide dis- asters in coastal areas of China from 1368 to 1911, and analyzes the reason of the tide disasters, its social impact and corresponding opposed measures. The results show that： （1） Tide disasters occurred more frequently in Qing dynasty than in Ming dynasty. The month distribution mainly concentrates from the May to September, and come to peak in July. The long-term trends in general presents a slow fluctuating rise. The wavelet analysis indicates that there are cycles of different time lengths. （2） In space, the frequency and hot spots show significant regional differences, and have a certain concentration in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai. （3） The tide disasters have a close relationship with E1 Nino, solar activity and locust outbreaks： E1 Nino and sunspot impact on the typhoon＇s time of landing in China, and eventually affect the occurrence of the tide disasters. The tide disasters have an effect on water system and hydrological changes, and finally affect the occurrence of the locust outbreaks. The tide disasters and locust outbreaks have a good correspondence in the occurring years. （4） The tide disasters endanger the life and property of the people in coastal areas, and influence the development of the coastal economy. People used to build the dam, embankment, pier, cofferdam and take other methods to stop the invasion of the tide disasters.