基于ISM和区间数的含硫油品储罐自燃影响因素分析

Analysis of factors influencing spontaneous combustion of oil tanks containing sulfur based on ISM and interval-numbe

为系统分析含硫油品储罐自燃的各影响因素,基于解释结构模型(ISM)方法的特点,结合事故致因理论,从人-物-环境-管理4个维度找出16个诱导含硫油品储罐自燃的影响因子,初步建立含硫油品储罐自燃影响因素的4级多层阶梯ISM。采用区间数互反判断矩阵,评估各含硫油品储罐自燃影响因素的大小;引入悲观度指数,改进和优化区间数层次模型,最终确定16个指标的权重。结果表明:影响含硫油品储罐自燃的4个维度,其重要度从高到低依次为管理、人、物和环境,因此,需加强对含硫原油生产工艺的日常监管。

In order to analyze the influence factors of the spontaneous combustion of oil tank containing sulfur. Based on characteristics of ISM method and combined with accident causation theory, 16 factors influencing spontaneous combustion of oil tanks containing sulfur were identified from 4 dimensions including human, machine, environment and management.A four-layer multi-hierarchical interpretative structure model was built for spontaneous combustion of oil tank containing sulfur. According to the establishment of ISM, the interval reciprocal judgment matrix was used to evaluate the influence factors of spontaneous combustion of oil tanks containing sulfur, the pessimism degree was introduced to improve and optimize the interval number hierarchy mode. Finally, weights of 16 indexes were determined. The research results show that the importance degrees from high to low for 4 dimensions of the influence factors of spontaneous combustion for oil tankscontaining sulfur are the management, people, machine and environment, respectively, so it is necessary to attach importance to the daily supervision of production processing for oil containing sulfur.