高速公路网运营风险分析方法研究

Research on method for assessing expressway network operational risk

为分析高速公路网运营风险,基于高速公路网构件上的交通流特性,用图论和复杂网络的相关知识,建立高速公路网的概念模型,并分析路网构件属性。采用风险理论分析路网运营风险的内涵,构建包括非均匀测度子集、连通性测度子集和抗毁性测度子集在内的路网运营风险测度集,鉴于运营风险测度之间的相互作用关系,提出一种路网运营风险评估方法。最后,以北京市高速公路网为例,验证该方法的有效性。结果表明,笔者所建立的高速公路网运营风险分析方法能够反映路网实际运营过程中存在的风险,用其取得的运营风险评估结果与实际路网运营状况较为一致。

For the sake of analyzing the operational risk of expressway networks, based on dynamic characteristics of traffic flow on the expressway networks components, by using graph theory and complex network, a concept model was built. Expressway component natures were defined. By referring to the risk theory analysis, the content of operational risk of expressway networks was analyzed. A set of operational risk measures of expressway network was established, including the heterogeneity measures, connectivity measures and survivability measures. Based on the interconnected relationship between operational risk measures, a method was worked out for assessing operational risk of expressway networks. Finally, the method was applied to the expressway network in Beijing, to evaluate its effectiveness. The results indicate that the operational risk assessing method can reflect the risks in the real operation process of the expressway network, the operational risk evaluation results are in accordance with the real operation situation.