水电工程突发事件实时响应决策云模型研究

Study on cloud model for decision making about real-time response to emergencies in hydropower stations

为提高水电工程突发事件应对效率,综合考虑应急决策的模糊性及突发事件演变的随机性,建立突发事件动态应急云决策模型。首先,分析突发事件的演变特点及应急方案调整策略,构建方案调整决策指标集。其次,运用云图直观地实现对指标权重的逐步寻优,得到更有实际意义的指标权重。最后,运用云模型量化方案定性语言评价值,建立方案综合决策云模型。结果表明,运用水电工程突发事件实时响应云决策模型,能够量化决策过程中存在的模糊信息,提高方案调整策略的可比性,并通过云图直观展示对比分析结果,获得可行有效的调整方案,实现对突发事件的动态控制。

It was held by the authors that in order to improve the efficiency of emergency response, considering fuzziness of emergency decision and randomness of the emergency evolution comprehensively, a dynamic emergency decision model should be built based on cloud for hydropower project emergency. Firstly, through analysis of emergency evolution features and emergency plan adjustment strategy, an emergency plan adjustment decision index set was established. Then, weights of the indexes with practical significance were identified after being optimized intuitively by cloud charts. Lastly, qualitative language evaluation values were quantified by using cloud model, the decision-making cloud model was build. Results show that the decisionmaking model based on cloud for the real-time response to emergencies in hydropower project can quantify fuzzy information available in the decision-making process to improve the comparability of the adjustment strategies and obtain an effective adjustment plan by indicating the decision results graphically.