寡头垄断模式下集装箱运价影响机制实证分析

Empirical Analysis of the Influencing Mechanism of Container Freight in the Case of Oligopoly

梳理影响市场运费走势的要素体系,进而构建基于数据分析为基础的理论框架,然后选择分析几类核心因素与市场运费之间的关系,来探究寡头垄断模式下影响市场的主要因素与运价指数的数据本身之间的影响机制.研究发现:单位运力年周转率与集装箱运费指数(China Container Freight Index,CCFI)之间不存在协整关系,GDP、原油价格与CCFI之间并无Granger关系,而闲置运力是影响CCFI变化的Granger原因;同时CCFI与闲置运力各自都存在严格的自相关与溢出效应.

Sorting out the factors that affect freight trend, then building the theoretical framework based on data analysis, this paper selectively analyzes the relationship between certain kinds of core factors and container freight in order to explore the influencing mechanism of main factors on freight index in the case of oligopoly. Results show that no co-integration relationship exists between annual turnover rate of unit capacity and CCFI（China Container Freight Index）. Moreover, there is no Granger relation among GDP,crude oil price and CCFI, while idle capacity is the Granger cause of CCFI fluctuation. Meanwhile, CCFI and idle capacity has their own strict self-correlation and overflow effect.