城市建成环境对出租车出行需求影响研究——基于空间溢出效应的分析

Analysis of the Impact of Built Environment on Taxi Travel Demand Considering Spatial Spillover Effect

城市建成环境对交通出行具有深刻的影响,为探讨快速城市化时期我国城市建成环境对出租车出行需求的影响,本文构建了考虑空间溢出效应的计量模型,以北京市为例开展了实证研究.基于交通分区空间尺度,利用出租车GPS数据获取了交通分区出行需求,度量了住宅类、工作岗位类及交通设施类等变量表征建成环境,进而研究建成环境对出租车出行需求的影响.通过传统最小二乘法的多元回归模型、空间自回归模型与空间杜宾模型进行对比发现,空间杜宾模型的拟合度和解释力最优,研究建成环境对出租车出行需求的影响时不能忽略空间溢出效应.利用空间杜宾模型参数估计结果,分析了建成环境的住宅类、工作岗位类及交通设施类变量对出租车出行需求的直接效应、溢出效应与总效应.本文力求掌握出租车出行需求产生的内在城市环境因素,为降低出租车空驶率、实现出租车空间需求预测及分布均衡提供依据.

Urban built environment has an important impact on travel. In order to explore the influence of built environment on the taxi travel demand in the period of rapid urbanization in China, an econometric model considering spatial spillover effect is proposed. Beijing is taken as the empirical case in this paper. On the base of traffic analysis zone, taxi GPS data is used to obtain the taxi travel demand, and the densities of residential, employment and traffic facilities are measured to represent the built environment. Comparison among traditional OLS model, SAR model and SDM model, it is found that the SDM model obtains the best model fit and explanatory power. The significant spatial spillover effect of built environment on taxi travel demand should not be removed. According to the SDM model results, the direct, spillover and total effects of built environment on taxi travel demand are analyzed. This study hope to better understand the effect of built environment on taxi travel demand, providing helpful basis to reduce the rate of taxi without passengers,achieve the taxi space demand forecasting and distribution equilibrium.