养老保险城乡一体化对农业转移人口市民化的支撑机制分析

Urban Rural Integration of Rural Migrant Residents and Coordinated Development of the Social Security System in Urban and Rural Areas

根据农业转移人口是否市民化以及养老保险制度是否实现城乡一体化间的匹配对接关系,本文建立了基于OLG框架的最优递归模型以研究养老保险制度城乡一体化对农业转移人口市民化的影响。模型校正结果表明,如果农业转移人口能够实现真正意义上的市民化,城乡养老保险水平的差异将为未来中国经济持续增长提供一定空间。实证分析表明,养老保险体系各组成部分中,养老保险支出和收入对农业转移人口市民化的支撑效应有所不同,养老保险收入对农业转移人口市民化的支撑作用是肯定的,在考虑非线性因素的情况下,养老保险支出对农业转移人口市民化也具有显著的支撑作用。

A recursive equilibrium model, which is based on the urban - rural integration of the rural migrant labor force and coordinated development of the social security system in urban and rural areas, is established in this paper to study the influ- ence of insurance system of urban - rural integration on population urbanization. The calibration results indicate that ff the rural migrant residents can be transformed into urban inhabitants on real significance, when the level of urbanization increases according to the current speed, the difference between urban and rural social insurance level will provide a certain space for the future of China＇s economic growth. The empirical analysis shows that, in various parts of the social insurance system, the supporting effects of urbanization of the population of expenditure on old - age insurance or pension income of agricultural transfer are different. The support role of the pension income of agricultural transfer rural - urban integration is in the affirmative, while considering the nonlinear factors, the pension insurance expenditure on agriculture transfer rural - urban integration also is supportive.