哈尔滨市区洪灾风险空间演变模式

Drought risk space evolution pattern in Haerbin

由于洪灾突发性强、破坏性大、影响范围广,给居民生命安全、财产等造成重大损失,为了更好的预防洪灾及了解未来洪灾风险演变模式,利用自然灾害风险形成四因子理论,选取哈尔滨市区气象、水文、经济及社会等18个指标,构建哈尔滨市区洪灾风险评价模型,对哈尔滨市区2000年-2009年洪灾风险区划,并通过GIS技术对哈尔滨市区2000年-2009年洪灾风险区划分析,归类风险空间演变模式。结果为:哈尔滨市区洪灾风险空间转移升高模式包括边缘接触模式、摆动模式、内部突增模式、跨越模式4种;洪灾风险转移降低模式包括边缘退缩模式、片状降低模式、内部突降模式3种。研究结果可为减少洪灾对城市居民带来的损失及城市防洪规划提供决策依据。

Haerbin city one of the typical cities with frequent floods in China,and the region with occurrence of flood disaster changes every year.It would be beneficial if the disaster prevention and reduction department could make timely and accurate flood control planning by understanding the risk of flood disaster dynamic distribution rules.Firstly,through the nature disaster risk formation four-factor theory,assessment model of flood disaster risk of Haerbin Province was established,using metrological,hydrological,social and economical features as indicators.Secondly,comprehensive dynamic degree of flood risk in Haerbin from 2000 to 2010was analyzed by means of the dynamic degree of single risk,the dynamic degree of integrated risk,gravity center migration of risk and risk replacement coefficient.Mapping and analysis of the risk zoning of flood disaster was conducted by GIS,and the risk spatial evolution pattern was classified.Seven risk spatial evolution patterns were included as follows：edge contact expansion,inwards sudden increase,swing,leapfrogging,marginal deflation,internal sudden decrease and regional deflation.