中国碳排放空间格局的时空演化——基于动态演化及空间集聚的视域

Spatial-Time Evolution of Carbon Emission Patterns in China:Based on Dynamic Evolution and Spatial Agglomeration

针对中国碳排放的空间相关性和差异性,通过全域空间自相关检验分析中国区域碳排放的空间依赖性和时空跃迁路径,局域空间自相关检验分析中国区域碳排放的空间集聚性,依据时空跃迁测度法对中国区域碳排放散点图的时空演化展开分析.结果显示:中国碳排放省域间存在自相关性,并且表现为一种集聚格局;碳排放的相关性呈逐渐增强的趋势;中国碳排放的空间相关性和局域区域结构具有一定的锁定效应和路径依赖.因此,应该客观理性地看待中国碳排放问题,发展低碳经济和治理碳排放的政策应该主要从空间视域动态地综合考虑.

Aiming at the spatial correlation and difference of Chinese carbon emission, the spatial dependence and temporal transition path of Chinese regional carbon emission were analyzed with global spatial autocorrelation testing the spatial agglomeration was explored with local spatial autocorrelation testing, and the evolution of Chinese regional carbon emission scatter plot was studied based on Rey's measurement of spatial and temporal transition. The results showed that there exists an inter-province correlation in Chinese carbon emission with a clustering pattern, which tends to increase gradually, and the spatial correlation of Chinese carbon emissions and the local regional structure are quite stable and path dependent. Therefore, the issue of Chinese carbon emission should be viewed objectively and rationally, the development of low-carbon economy and the policies of managing carbon emission in China should be considered both globally and dynamically from the spatial perspective. © 2016, Editorial Department of Journal of Northeastern University. All right reserved.