人力资本与服务贸易差额:来自跨国面板数据的证据

Human Capital and Services Trade Balance: Evidence from the Transnational Panel Data

本文首先分析了人力资本对服务贸易差额的影响机制与作用途径,然后利用51个国家1990-2012年的跨国面板数据考察了人力资本对服务贸易差额的影响,研究结果表明:在控制了模型的内生性和动态性后,对于所有国家和发达国家样本而言,不论以何种指标作为人力资本的代理变量,人力资本均对服务贸易差额具有显著的正向影响。对于发展中国家而言,由于其人力资本水平和人力资本质量与发达国家存在较大的差距,其平均受教育年限和加权的高等教育入学率并未对服务贸易差额产生显著的正向影响,但健康人力资本的增加能够显著改善其服务贸易差额。分类型的研究还发现,教育人力资本对生产性服务贸易差额的促进作用要更强,而健康人力资本对消费性服务贸易差额的影响要更大。本文的研究结论为我国扭转服务贸易逆差,优化服务贸易结构提供了可能的路径。

This paper begins with the mechanism and the channel of how human capital influences service trade balance, and then investigates the influence of human capital on service trade balance by using the panel data of 51 countries from 1990 to 2012. The result reveals that for all samples and the samples of developed countries, when we take the model＇s endogenous and dynamic into account, no matter which index is used as a proxy variable of human capital,the human capital has a significantly positive effect on service trade balance. For developing countries, since there exists a large gap in the level and the quality of human capital between developing countries and developed countries, the mean year of schooling and the weighted enrollment rate of higher education in developing countries do not have positive effects on service trade balance, but the improvement of health human capital can remarkably improve the service trade balance. In classification, education human capital has a stronger impact on producer service trade balance, while the health human capital has a greater impact on consumer service trade balance. This paper provides a possible path to reverse the service trade deficit and optimize the structure of service trade in China.