中国对中亚5国OFDI的实证研究——以“丝绸之路经济带”为背景

Empirical Study of China's OFDI into the Five Central Asia Countries——Based on the Background of “Silk Road Economic Bell”

随着陆上＂丝绸之路经济带＂建设的进一步推进,中国对地处丝绸之路中亚经济带核心区的中亚5国的直接投资急剧增长。基于2003～2013年中国对中亚5国OFDI的数据,在投资引力模型的分析框架下,采用动态面板差分GMM和系统GMM估计方法,对中国在中亚地区的OFDI动因进行深入的分析研究,研究结论显示：一方面,获取中亚5国丰富的自然资源是中国进行OFDI的重要动机,东道国矿产、石油等自然资源密集度越高,中国OFDI的流入就越多。另一方面,东道国的产业内贸易程度越高,越能吸引中国的OFDI流入,这是中国产业结构转型升级的必然结果,伴随着一些产业向周边发展中国家的转移,以便从事专业化生产,提高生产分割效率,发挥规模经济优势。最后针对实证结果提出意见和对策。

With the further advance of the Silk Road Economic Bell, China＇s OFDI to the five Central Asian countries have got rapid growth. Based on 2003- 2013 China＇s OFDI data for the five Central Asian countries, under the framework of the investment gravity model, we use the difference GMM and system GMM estimation methods of dynamic panel data to analyze the deep move of China＇s OFDI into the five Central Asian countries, The conclusion shows that ： on the one hand, rich natural resources are an important motivation for China＇s OFDI, the higher the intensity of natural resources in the host countries, such as mineral, oil and gas, the more China＇s OFDI will flow into. On the other hand, the higher level China＇s intra- industry trade with host countries become, the more China＇s OFDI will be attracted, rich natural resources are an important mo- tivation for OFDI to China, the higher the intensity of the host mineral natural resources, such as oil, Chinese OFDI flows into more, which is the inevitable result of China＇s industrial restructuring and upgrading. With the domestic industrial structure China has gradually transferred some industries to neighbor developing countries, with wishes to engage in specialized production, improve the efficiency of the production division and enhance economies of scale advantages. Eventually the paper proposes some policy advices and implementation measures against empirical conclusions.