多层级系统安全状态量化及动态评价方法

Quantization of Multi-level System Safety Status and Its Dynamic Evaluation

为及时、合理评价生产系统安全状况,促进现场安全管理工作的持续改进,依据生产现场日常隐患排查的安全管理机制,将反映生产现场系统安全属性的安全要素集,根据行业特点进行归类来提取评价指标,形成一个表达系统安全状态的逻辑结构,研究以诸多安全要素风险值来量化评价指标的方法,用以刻画系统安全逻辑结构中指标层的安全状态。采用适用于多样本关联分析的熵权法,客观、动态地确定指标权重;采用加权灰色关联分析法,描述评价样本接近于系统安全目标的程度来确定评价等级,实现了生产现场系统安全动态、定量评价。实例分析表明,通过系统安全状态量化与动态评价能及时甄别反映系统薄弱环节的系统安全主控因素,为现场安全管理提供决策依据。

In order to timely and reasonably evaluate the safety situation and promote continuous improvement of safety management in the production system,based on the daily hazard identification at the production site,the safety factors set reflecting the scene of system safety attributes are classified to extract the evaluation index according to industry characteristics,to form an logical structure for expressing system safety status and a method of quantizing process by the risk value of the safety factors is studied to characterize the safety state of the index layer in the logical structure. The entropy method,suitable for multiple samples correlation analysis is applied to dynamically determine the index weight,and the weighted gray correlation analysis method is used to describe the closeness between the evaluation sample and the extent of system safety goal and determine the evaluation level,which has achieved a safety dynamic and quantitative evaluation of production site. The case study shows that the system status quantification and dynamic evaluation are capable to discern the main factors of system safety of reflecting the system weaknesses and provide basis for on- site safety management.