结合流程图与ISM的区域管制运行风险分析

Risk Analysis of Area Control Operation Based on Combining Flow diagram Method with ISM

为保障区域管制系统运行的安全,采用流程图法从管制员、设备、环境、管理四方面识别各运行环节潜在的风险,并建立风险因素集合。运用解释结构模型(ISM),对风险因素间的关系进行推理和计算,最终形成一个五级递阶结构解释模型,将风险因素之间原本模糊不清的关系转化为直观的具有层次分明的结构。通过对解释结构模型的分析找出了影响区域管制运行安全的直接因素、间接因素以及深层次的因素,并提出了相应的风险控制措施。

To guarantee the area control system safety operation,flow diagram is used to identify potential risk factors of each operation process from the aspects of controller,equipment,enviroment and management and risk factors sets are established. The interpretative structure（ ISM） is applied to calculate the relations between risk factors,finally,a five- layer interpretative structure model is established and the relations of risk factors transform a distinct layer from ambiguity. Through the structure model,the direct indirect and in- depth fundamental level risk- leading factors can be obtained for area control sytem and corresponding risk control measures are put forward.