房地产调控下房企股票的历史分析及投资建议

Historical analysis of real estate stocks and investment advice under the real estate regulation and control

近几年,我国进行了多轮房地产业调控,加大了投资者投资房企股票的难度。本文创新性地将近十五年出台的房地产政策分成四类进行事件研究,总结各类别对房企股票影响的特点。最后在新一轮政策调控开始,股市产生剧烈波动的背景下,给予不同类型投资者投资房地产股市实用性较强的建议,认为风险厌恶者可持有稳定性较强的四大房企的股票,而风险喜好者则可依据不同类别政策半个月到三个月不等的波动期进行买卖操作,以获得超额收益。

In recent years, Chinese government strengths the regulation of real estate business, which makes it more difficult to invest in real estate stocks. We classify the regulation policies in recent 15 years into four categories according to the departments where policies were issued. Then we use event study method to explore their influence on real estate stock. Ultimately,in the new volatile stock market, we suggest risk-averse investors invest in the Big Four real estate enterprises while risk-seeking investors trade more frequently in accord with different policies to earn excess returns.