青岛市卫生人力现状及测算研究

Research on the Current Status and Estimation of Human Resources on Health in Qingdao

目的:摸清青岛市卫生人力发展现状,预测2020年青岛市卫生人力状况。方法:以2006—2015年青岛市卫生统计资料为基础,采用人力/人口比值法、时间序列法、比较分析法和比值推算法,进行预测。结果:2010—2014年,青岛市卫生人员数上升趋势明显。结论:到2020年,青岛市卫生人力资源配置数量均达到国家要求,但出于经济社会和人口形势的变化,卫生人力资源的数量和结构仍需不断提高和改善。

Objective： To acquire the current development status of heahh staffs in Qingdao and predict the future health human status of Qingdao in 2020. Methods： According to the health statistics from 2006-2015 in Qingdao, the ratio of health care staffs relative to populaiton, time series, comparative analysis and ratio reckoning were applied to conduct the forecast. Results： The increasing trend of health staff number was obvious from 2010 to 2014. Conclusion： The number of Qingdau health manpower would reach the standard set by national government. However, for the change of economic, social and demographic situation, the volume and structure of heahh manpower resources needed to be continually enhanced and improved.