骨折风险预测工具在绝经后女性人群骨折风险预测中的适用性分析及效果评价

Analysis on applicability of fracture risk prediction tool in prediction of fracture risk among postmenopausal women and effect evaluation

目的应用骨折风险预测工具(FRAX)对吉林省内绝经后女性人群骨折风险预测的适用性进行分析评价。方法选取2012-2015年在吉林油田总医院进行骨密度相关检查的874名绝经后女性为研究对象,按照FRAX软件对年龄、体重系数、吸烟、饮酒等资料进行录入,分析所有研究对象10年内的骨折风险预测结果。同时采用Logistic回归分析得到影响骨折的主要因素,与FRAX结果相比较,并采用Pearson相关性统计分析对FRAX软件中不录入骨密度与录入骨密度数据对FRAX骨折风险预估的影响。结果除饮酒与类风湿性关节炎因素以外,FRAX在绝经后女性人群骨折预测风险与各因素具有统计学意义(P<0.05),主要危险因素为既往骨折史。运用Logistic回归分析得到的骨折风险因素与FRAX得到的结果具有一致性,有无BMD值的FRAX预测主要骨折与髋部骨折的概率无显著性差异(P<0.05),通过ROC曲线下面积,结合BMD值进行FRAX结果预测较不结合BMD值的准确性要高。可适度选择推拿手法缓解,并疏筋理气。结论 FRAX可用于对绝经后女性人群骨折风险的预测,在有无BMD值的情况下预测结果均可靠。

Objective To analyze and evaluate the applicability of fracture risk prediction tool （FRAX） in prediction of fracture risk a- mong postmenopausal women in Jilin province. Methods A total of 874 postmenopausal women receiving related examinations of bone den- sity in the hospital from 2012 to 2015 were selected as study objects, the related data, such as age, body mass index （BMI） , smoking, drinking, were input according to FRAX software, the prediction results of fracture risk within 10 years were analyzed. Logistic regression a- nalysis was used to analyze the main influencing factors of fracture, then the results were compared with FRAX results, Pearson correlation statistical analysis was used to analyze the effects of not inputting bone density and inputting bone density in FRAX software on evaluation of fracture risk. Results There was statistically significant difference in FRAX factors of fracture risk among postmenopausal women except drinking and rheumatoid arthritis factor （ P〈0. 05 ） , the main risk factor was history of previous fracture. Fracture risk factors after logistic regression analysis were consistent with the results obtained by FRAX. There was no statistically significant difference in probability of FRAX in prediction of major fractures and hip fractures between FRAX with BMD and FRAX without BMD （ P〈0.05 ）, the accuracy of FRAX pre- diction through the area under ROC curve combined with BMD was higher than that of FRAX prediction through the area under ROC curve. Massage Can be applied reasonably to relieve the disease. Conclusion FRAX can be used to predict fracture risk among postmenopausal women, and the results are reliable in the case of BMD value.