广东省登革热发病周期小波分析及其与五运六气关系的研究

Study on the Wavelet Analysis of Dengue Fever in Guangdong Province and the Relationship between Five Movements and Six Climates

目的：探讨广东省登革热发病周期与五运六气学说周期之间的关联性,并预测登革热流行病学趋势。方法：采用复Morlet小波对广东省1981～2014年34年间登革热年发病率进行周期分析,探讨其与运气周期的关联性,分析波峰对应年份的干支特点。结果：登革热年发病率有9年和17年2个准周期。9年和17年时间尺度所对应的波幅都逐年下降,表明登革热的年发病率有逐渐下降的趋势。9年准周期和五运的10周期有一定的吻合,高发年份为土运和火运之年;17年准周期和六气中的18年准周期也有一定的吻合。在9年准周期中,登革热的发病高峰对应六气中的君火在泉。

Objective： To study the connections between the attack cycle of Dengue Fever and the cycle of Five Elements Motion and Six Kinds of Natural Factors; to predict the tendency of Dengue Fever. Method： Analysing the cycle of the attack rate of Dengue Fever from 1981 to 2014 by complex Morlet wavelet as well as researching its relations with the cycle of Five Elements Motion and Six Kinds of Natural Factors; analysing the characteristics of Chinese Era to the year＇ s Dengue attack peak. Result： The quasi-periodicity of the attack of Dengue is 9 years or 17 years. The volatility of the disease＇s attack is gradually falling down cycle by cycle,which shows that the occurrence of this desease tends to decline.The nine-year quasi-periodicity of the disease attack mostly matches the ten-year-cycle of the Five Elements Motion and most Dengue Fevers takes place in the earth year and fire year（ the five Elements）. What＇s more,the seventeen-year quasiperiodicity matches the eighteen-year of the Six Kinds of Natural Factors at most,too. During the nine-year quasiperiodicity,the attack peak of the Dengue Fever occurs in Monarch fire in spring of Six Kinds of Natural Factors.