基于时间序列数据的用电结构变化对产业结构调整效应

Effects of Power Consumption Structure Change on Industrial Restructuring Based on Time Series Data

工业化发展后期产业结构调整推动经济持续发展,不同行业之间用电强度存在差异,用电结构变化能反映产业结构调整方向。实证分析表明,浙江省用电结构和产业结构之间存在长期均衡关系;第二产业用电占比对其产值占比的影响并不显著,第三产业用电占比对其产值占比有显著正向影响;第三产业用电占比是产业结构升级的格兰杰原因,为正向影响,其系数为3.43%。

Industrial restructuring in the late stage of industrialization can promote sustainable economic devel- opment. Due to the electricity intensity differences between different industries, power structure change can reflect the trend of industrial restructuring. The empirical analysis shows that there exists a long-term equilib- rium relationship between power structure and industrial structure in Zhejiang Province. The power utilization ratio of the secondary industry has no significant impact on production value proportion, while the power utili- zation ratio of the tertiary industry, the Granger cause of industrial structure upgrade, has remarkable positive effect on production value proportion, whose coefficient is 3.13 %.