中国省级消费风险分担:测度、影响因素与福利效应

Provincial Consumption Risk Sharing in China:Measurement,Influence Factors and Welfare Effect

基于1978—2013年中国省级面板数据,从消费增长与产出增长关系视角出发,测度中国省级消费风险分担水平,并进一步研究其影响因素和福利效应。结果显示:虽然中国省级消费风险分担水平相对偏低,但在研究的样本期内呈现出明显的上升趋势。资本市场整合、信贷市场发展、人均受教育水平、财政转移支付对消费风险分担具有积极的促进作用,其中,资本市场整合的作用力度最大;地方政府财政支出增长、服务业发展则会阻碍消费风险的分担。1978—2013年间,中国已实现的福利收益呈逐年上升之势,而潜在的福利收益则呈下降趋势。

Based on provincial panel data from 1978 to 2013,this paper measures provincial consumption risk sharing in China and studies its influence factors and welfare effect from the viewof relationships of consumption growth and output growth. The results showthat although the level of consumption risk sharing is low,it shows a clear upward trend in the sample period. Capital market integration,credit market development,per capita level of education and financial transfer payment can promote the sharing level of consumption risk,among these factors,capital market integration is the most important factor. However,local government expenditure and service industry development will impede the sharing level of consumption risk.The realized welfare is on a upward trend,but the potential welfare shows a downward trend from 1978 to2013.