国际贸易是否抑制了企业层面产出波动——基于进口中间品多样化角度

Does International Trade Reduce Firm-level Output Volatility:Analysis of Diversification of Imported Intermediate Goods

利用1999—2007年工业数据库和海关数据库匹配信息,运用Heckman选择模型,从进口多样化中间品的替代效应、互补效应和创新效应角度出发,分析了企业进口中间品多样性对产出波动的影响。实证结果表明:进口中间品多样性与企业产出波动之间存在显著的"U"型关系;进口中间品多样化程度较高的东部地区企业"U"型关系较明显,而程度较低的中西部地区企业负向关系显著;出口密集度越高的企业,进口中间品多样性对产出波动的影响越小。

Based on matched information of Chinese Manufacturing Enterprises Dataset and Customs Database from 1999 to 2007,Heckman selection model is used to analyze the impact of diversification of imported intermediate goods on firm- level output fluctuations,from the perspective of substitution effect,complementary effect and innovative effect brought by diversification of imported intermediate goods. Empirical results showthat there is significant ＂U ＂shaped relationship between diversification of imported intermediate goods and output volatility in general. Further analysis finds that the ＂U ＂shaped relationship is more obvious in plants located in the eastern region which have imported more types of products,while there is significant negative relationship between diversity and output volatility in plants located in the western and central regions. The influence of diversity of imported intermediate good is less on plants with higher export intensity.