基于VAR-VEC模型的人口迁移与区域经济发展的历史规律分析:对台湾的考察

Analysis of the Population Migration and the Historical Law of the Development of Reginal Economy Based on the VAR-VEC Model:An investigation of Taiwan

从横向和纵向两个维度对台湾人口迁移及其经济效应与规律进行探究,并利用台湾跨度30年的时间序列数据建立向量误差修正模型估算其长期关系,研究发现二者存在非单向性关系;人口迁移对区域经济的影响呈滞后效应,反映在产业结构层面存在极大的相异性:相较产业结构合理化而言,人口迁移对产业结构高级化的作用更显著;短期内人口迁移无法显现其正面作用,长期而言,人口迁移强化并形成有竞争力的综合比较优势,必然带动经济结构的调整与升级。

Based on the theoretical analysis of the relationship between the population migration and the regional comparative advantages, the paper analyzes the long-term relationship between them by drawing on the time series data of 30 years and using Vector Error Correction model. The result shows that dynamic relationship between them is not unidirectional. There is a positive effect of migra- tion on the industrial structure, and the effect of migration on the optimization of industrial structure is more significant. Population migration has the lag effect on the regional economy, and there is a great difference in the level of industrial structure. In the short term, migration can not show its posi- tive effect. However, there are gradually increasing positive effects of the population migration in the long run. Migration is bound to promote the adjustment and upgrade of the economic structure.