南方降水对电煤需求的挤出效应分析

The Study of Crowding-out Effect of Southern Precipitation Demand for Utility Resources

受厄尔尼诺现象等因素的影响,2016年南方降水明显偏丰。由于汛期提前,即使在水电发电能力和特高压输电能力相对稳定的前提下,全年水电高负荷出力和输送的状态会更长,对煤炭市场的影响也相对更大。通过分析外地水电调入和当地水力发电对沿海地区电煤消耗的挤出效应,提出在经济L型走势的背景下,后期煤炭需求将整体疲弱,煤炭市场的平衡需要加大供给侧改革的力度来实现。

Under effect of E1 Nifio phenomenon, the precipitation level of Southern China this year is much higher than aver- age history data. Because of early start of this flood season, even under the premise that hydroelectric power, generation ca- pacity and of UHV transmission capacity are relatively stable, the status of high load of water and electricity output and de- livery for the whole year will be longer, the impact on the coal market is relatively larger.This paper analyses the crowd- ing-out influence of electricity coal consumption due to toreign hydropower transfer and local hydropower electricity in the coastal area, puts forward under the background of economic L movements, there will be overall weak demand later, the balance of coal market need to intensify the reform of the supply side.