玉树东北部地区的气温变化特征及其影响研究

Characteristics and the Imapcts of Temperature Variations in Northeast Part of Yushu Area

利用青海玉树东北部地区1961~2015年月气温资料,采用线性倾向估计、Mann-Kendall检验和R/S分析等方法分析了近55年该地区气温变化特征和影响并对未来趋势进行了研究。结果表明：玉树东北部地区近55年来年平均、最高和最低气温的气候倾向率为0.34、0.36和0.32℃/10a,均呈显著的上升趋势;突变检验显示年平均气温在1998年附近发生了由低到高的暖突变,最高气温和最低气温分别在1994—1996年间和2003年附近发生了暖突变,突变后气温上升的趋势是显著的;未来气温变化趋势预计与过去55年的相同,仍以增温为主且短时期内不会发生逆转;气温显著变化会对该地区水资源、生态环境、农牧业生产及重大工程建设等带来一定的影响。

According to the monthly temperature data during 1961 ~ 2015 in the northeast part of Yushu area in Qinghai Province,using the linear regression,Mann-Kendall and R / S analysis,the characteristics of temperature variations,the effects and trends are studied. The results show that the annual mean temperature,the maximum temperature and the minimum temperature are rising significantly with the rates of 0. 34 /10 a,0. 36 /10 a and 0. 32℃ /10 in recent 55 years. There are abrupt changes from cold to warm in annual mean temperature,maximum temperature and minimum temperature are occurred in 1998,1994—1996 and 2003,respectively. Moreover,the temperature will maintain the original warming trend in the future and will not reverse in the short term. The significant changes in temperature will have some impacts on water resources,ecological environment,agricultural production and major construction projects in the study area.