关于假设检验的争议:问题的澄清与解决

Controversies on hypothesis testing: Clarification and solving of the problems

对传统的假设检验作为心理学实验的数据分析工具的评价涉及两个标准:首先是它是否合法,其次是它是否有用。置于频率学派统计学框架中的传统假设检验在逻辑上实际上是合法的;但它在效用性方面则有着备择假设不可证伪以及只能提供定性结论这两方面的缺陷。置信区间能够集中地改进和弥补这些缺陷。对传统假设检验使用中错误的澄清也使得研究者们开始重视PSI问题,这使得心理学实验的设计和数据分析从关注总体转向关注个体。

Traditional hypothesis testing, which serves as the data analysis tool in psychological experiments, can be appraised according to two criterions, the first one is legality and the second utility. The logic foundation of traditional hypothesis testing, rooted in the frame of frequency school statistics, is, in fact, correct. But, in terms of utility, traditional hypothesis testing involves two shortcomings. One is that its alternative hypothesis can＇t be denied, and the other is that it can only provide qualitative conclusion. Confidence interval is suggested to replace traditional hypothesis testing to report the results of psychological experiments, for it can modify and supplement traditional hypothesis testing in these two aspects. Clarification of the mistakes in the using of traditional hypothesis testing also makes the researchers pay much attention to the PSI problem, which would turn the focus of the design and data analysis of psychological experiments from emphasizing population to emphasizing individuals.