基于系统动力学的城市轨道交通经济效益分析——以上海轨道交通为例

The Economic Benefits Analysis of Urban Rail Transit Based on System Dynamics Model——A case study of shanghai metro

城市轨道交通作为城市投资最大的基础设施,其经济效益在区域经济发展过程中扮演着越来越重要的角色,其外部性效应对于区域经济发展方向的引导作用也已逐步凸显.通过分析城市轨道交通经济效益产生路径,综合运用系统动力学和回归分析方法,定量分析轨道交通与区域经济发展问关系以及未来趋势.以上海市2004-2014年的相关数据为蓝本实例论证了轨道交通的建设运营对于城市第三产业的促进效应极为明显,同时在长期看来,轨道交通对于区域经济的增长效应将会逐步扩大.

Urban rail transit as the city＇s largest investment in infrastructure,its economic benefit plays more and more important role in the regional economic development process,and its external effect to guide the direction of regional economic development has gradually prominent.In this paper,by analyzing the produce path of rail transit＇s economic benefit,and to use a combination of system dynamics and regression analysis,quantitative analysis between rail transport and regional economic development as well as future trends in the relationship.Shanghai 2004- 2014 data modeled examples demonstrate the construction and operation of rail transit for urban tertiary industry promotion effect is very obvious,and in the long term,rail transport will gradually expand to the effects of regional economic growth.