基于可拓-马尔科夫模型的贵州省生态安全预警

Early-warning Model Based on Extension and Markov for Ecological Security in Guizhou

基于1990—2013年贵州省生态安全的相关数据,从压力、状态、响应三个方面构建贵州省生态安全预警指标体系,运用惩罚型变权-可拓模型对1990—2013年贵州省生态安全预警等级进行测度,并运用马尔科夫模型对贵州省2014—2020年生态安全警情进行预测。结果表明:1)贵州省1990—2013年生态安全等级分为:巨警、向重警转换、重警、向中警转换、中警、向轻警转换,整体呈波动上升的趋势,指示灯由"红色"演化为"待定";2)贵州省2014—2020年生态安全预警等级为:中警和轻警,指示灯为"黄色"和"蓝色",生态安全状况具有恶化的趋势;3)影响贵州省生态安全水平的主要因素包括人口自然增长率、农民人均纯收入、GDP增长率、石漠化面积比重、水土流失治理比例等,是今后调控的重点。研究结果可为贵州省生态安全的维护提供参考。

Based on the related data of ecological security in Guizhou Province from 2002 to 2012, this paper construeted an early-warning index system for Guizhou Province, China from three aspects i pressure, state and response. Testing early warning degrees of ecological security in Guizhou Province from 1990 to 2013 by using the method of punished variable weight and extension analysis model, forecasting ecological security state in Guizhou Province from 2014 to 2020 by the Markov model. The results indicated that： 1 ） The security grade of Guizhou Province from 1990 to 2013 are divided into ： Huge alarm, converting into Heavy alarm, Heavy alarm, converting into Medium alarm, Medium alarm, converting into Light alarm, Overall, the level of ecological security showed an upward trend and the indicator light turned from ＂red＂ to ＂pending＂. 2）The warning degree will be Medium alarm and Light alarm in Guizhou Province from 2014 to 2020, the indicator light will be ＂Yellow＂ and ＂Blue＂, But it has the trend of deterioration. 3 ） The main factors which influence the ecological security of Guizhou Province include natural population growth rate, net income of rural households, GDP growth rate, proportion of Rocky desertification, improvement rate of soil and water loss. These are focus of ecological security regulation in the future. These findings could provide a reference for ecological security maintenance for Guizhou province.