LEAP模型下的陕西省节能与温室气体减排潜力分析

Analysis of Energy Conservation and GHG Emission Reduction Potential of Shaanxi Province under the LEAP Model

为应对日益严峻的气候变化及能源危机,探索高效的节能减排政策,完成相关政策的定量评价,基于陕西省统计年鉴,结合陕西省实际情况,建立了包含终端能源需求、能源加工转换、资源供应及温室气体排放4模块的陕西省LEAP模型。在对陕西省未来人口、经济发展情况进行预测的基础上,利用该模型对不同政策情景下未来陕西省的能源消耗及温室气体排放情况做出了预测,完成了相关政策的定量评价及节能减排潜力分析。结果表明:随着各项节能减排政策的实施,陕西省的能源消耗量及温室气体排放量均有所降低,在所建立的节能减排综合情景下,2030年陕西省一次能源消耗量与基准情景相比可望降低20.35%,温室气体排放量将降低27.29%;从节能减排技术来看,可再生能源发电技术节能减排成效显著;从用能部门来看,工业、交通及发电部门贡献水平最高。总体来说,陕西省节能减排潜力巨大。

In order to deal with the increasingly severe climate change and energy crisis, explore efficient energy conservation and GHG emission reduction policies and complete the quantitative evaluation of relevant policies, the LEAP model of Shaanxi Province is established according to the Shaanxi statistical yearbook and combined with the actual situation of Shaanxi Province. This LEAP model includes four parts： energy demand module, energy transformation module, resources supply module and GHG emission module. And based on the forecast of the development in population and economy of Shaanxi Province this paper has made a prediction on the energy consumption and GHG emission of Shaanxi Province in different policy scenarios, and conducted an analysis of the energy conservation and GHG emission reduction potential of the relevant policies. The results show that with the implementation of various policies, Shaanxi Province＇s energy consumption and GHG emission will be decreased with the implementation of various energy conservation and emission reduction policies. The primary energy consumption of Shaanxi Province in 2030 is expected to be decreased by 20.35% compared with the baseline scenario; the GHG emission will be reduced by 27.29% The renewable energy generationtechnology has made a great progress in energy conservation and GHG emission reduction, and most contribution to energy conservation and emission reduction was made in industry, transportation and power generation. So, generally speaking Shaanxi Province has enormous potential in energy conservation and GHG emission reduction.