摘要
本文通过对兵团农产品物流发展现状的分析,找出其存在的问题和制约因素,在此基础上,以兵团具有代表性的9种农产品为研究对象,利用灰色模型和BP神经网络分别预测兵团农产品物流需求量,并利用两种模型的预测结果,建立组合模型,进行组合预测,对精确预测兵团农产品物流市场需求具有一定的实际意义。
Through analyzing the development status of corps' agricultural product logistics, this paper finds out the existing problems and restricting factors. Basing on that, by utilizing two kinds of methods : Grey Model and BP neural network, this paper uses nine rep- resentatives of Corps'agricultural products as studying objects to predict Corps'agricultural products logistics demand, and then uses the results from the above two methods to set up combined model to do combination forecasting, which has a certain practical significance to precisely predict Corps' agricultural products logistics demand.
作者
朱叶
喻晓玲
Zhu Ye Yu Xiaoling(Collage of Economics and Management Tarim university, Alar Xinjiang 84330)
出处
《塔里木大学学报》
2016年第2期52-60,共9页
Journal of Tarim University
基金
塔里木大学社会科学基金项目(TDSKYB1501)
关键词
农产品物流
预测
市场需求
组合模型
agricultural products logistics
forecast
market demand
combined model