论人民币汇率形成机制改革的推进方向

The Road of the RMB Exchange Rate Regime Reform

长期以来,中国汇率政策的实质是"逆市场的预期管理"。迄今为止,汇率决策的思维定势并没有发生变化——害怕汇率浮动。过去是害怕升值,现在则是害怕贬值。然而,通过干预外汇市场实行的"预期管理"并不能导致汇率的自主稳定。面对无法出清的外汇市场,当前实施的"收盘价+一篮子货币"的中间价形成机制让篮子货币陷入易贬难升的困境。在中国的特定条件下,面对贬值压力,货币当局必须在汇率稳定、保住外汇储备、保持货币政策独立性、资本项目适度开放(或维持适度的资本管制)四个目标中选择三个。有鉴于此,我们依然主张人民币汇率应该尽快实现可自由浮动。为了防止汇率过度超调,可以引入人民币盯住宽幅一篮子货币作为过渡措施。盯住宽幅一篮子的安排可以在防止人民币出现超调的同时,避免过度干预外汇市场,从而最大限度减少外汇储备的损耗。

For a long time, the essence of China＇s exchange rate policy is to ＂reverse market expectation.＂ So far, the mindset of exchange rate decision has not changed-fear of exchange rate floating. In the past we were fear of appreciation, and now of devaluation. However, the ＂expectation management＂ of intervention in the foreign exchange market does not lead to a stable exchange rate. As the exchange market clearing has not been achieved, the current parity price formation mechanism of the ＂closing price and basket of currencies＂ has made the basket of currencies fall into the plight, where the currency is easy to depreciate but difficult to appreciate. Under certain conditions in China and in face of devaluation pressures, the monetary authorities must choose three objectives out of the four： exchange rate stability, foreign exchange reserves, monetary policy independence and modest capital account liberalization （or moderate capital controls） . We still advocate the RMB should be free to float as soon as possible. In order to prevent excessive exchange rate adjustment, we can introduce a transitional measure where RMB is pegged on a broad basket of currencies. Such measure can prevent the overshoot of the RMB and avoid excessive intervention in the foreign exchange market at the same time, thus minimizing the depletion of foreign exchange reserves.