人口结构、利率干预与消费金融效率

Population Structure, Interest Intervention and Consumer Finance Efficiency

刺激消费需求是后危机时代中国政府及学者关注和研究的重要课题。本文以消费金融效率为切入点,在拓展OLG模型和信贷配给理论分析的基础上,利用2005-2014年的宏观季度数据构建联立方程模型,通过实证得出以下主要结论:以人口老龄化为特征的人口结构变动主要通过利率和收入路径对消费信贷效率产生一定的正向效应;以利率市场化和基准利率调控为主要特征的政府利率干预对消费金融效率的提高也具有积极意义;短期内人口结构与消费的协同和消费金融效率的提升需要政府进行适当的利率干预并配之以积极的应对之策。

Stimulating consumption is an important subject which the Chinese government and scholars concern about and study on in the post-crisis era. This paper focuses on the efficiency of consumer finance. Based on extending OLG model and analyzing credit rationing theory, we make use of macroscopic quarterly data from 2005 to 2014 to establish simultaneous equations model. In the empirical study, we draw the main conclusions as follows： changes of population structure which are characterized by aging population mainly exert positive effect on the consumer finance efficiency through interest rate and income; government rates intervention which is characterized by interest rate liberalization and benchmark interest rate regulation also has positive impact on improving the consumer finance efficiency. In a short time, government needs to adopt proactive solutions including appropriate interest rate regulation to promote cooperation of population structure and consumption and improve consumer finance efficiency.