基于厄尔尼诺现象研究的丰满水库径流预测

Runoff Forecast About the Fengman Reservoir Catchment Based on EI Nino Research

利用PDO冷暖位相下El Nino和La Nina事件发生年份表,结合丰满水库流域来水实际,研究了PDO冷暖位相下El Nino和La Nina事件与丰满水库来水及洪水的统计规律。结果表明:PDO冷位相期El Nino发生年份丰满水库一般为枯水,PDO暖位相期El Nino发生年份丰满水库一般为丰水,丰满水库特丰水及大洪水多发生于PDO冷位相期。通过对1700—2014年太阳黑子相对数变化规律的分析,论证了1957年前后PDO冷位相期El Nino发生年份丰满水库来水规律异常与太阳黑子相对数阶段性趋势变化上的扰动有关。基于统计规律,预测2015年丰满水库来水为枯水。

Reservoir inflow forecast is important basis of reservoir scheduling and optimization allocation of water resources. The statistical law between EI Nino, La Nina events and Fengman Reservoir inflow and flood water under the changes in cold-warm phase of PDO was studied by this paper based on the event year table of EI Nino and La Nina and combining with the real water inflow of Fengman Reservoir watershed. The results show that when El Nino years happen, Fengman Reservoir is commonly low water at Lamar Dre cold phase period, El Nino years Fengman Reservoir is commonly plump water at Lamar Dre warm phase period, full water and flood often happens at Lamar Dre cold phase period. With the analysis of relative abundance of sunspots in the period of 1700-2014,it demonstrates the abnormal law of inflow water of El Nino year Fengman Reservoir at Lamar Dre cold phase period is related to relative abundance of sunspots periodic disturbance on the change trend before and after 1957. Based on the statistical law, the forecasting of Fengman Reservoir inflow water is low in 2015.