基于博弈论的大坝POT预警模型及其应用

POT Early-Warning Model of Dam Based on Game Theory and its Application

引入极值理论,提出了基于博弈论的POT变形预警模型。对于多测点原型观测数据,以博弈论确定其综合权重,以信息熵理论构建多测点的变形熵,通过POT模型设置一定的阈值,选取变形熵的超限值作为建模对象,利用广义帕累托分布拟合超限数据子样,以失效概率给出其变形预警值。将该方法用于雅砻江流域某混凝土拱坝的大坝预警实践,结果表明,与传统的单测点处理方法相比,该模型可以得出更加合理的结果,更能反映工程实际。

A model based on Game Theory and POT model has been established to determine warming index of concrete dam. The Game The-ory was applied to determine the comprehensive index weight and then the deformation entropy of multi measured point was established based on entropy theory. The POT model in Extreme Value Theory w,as introduced to implement the early-waning index estimation, according to thethreshold, the analysis samples were obtained from the deformation entropy data exceeding the threshold, which satisfied the generalized Pareto Distribution. The generalized Pareto Distribution function of the data exceeding the threshold was detertmined. The early-warning index could be calculated by the combination of above distribution function and the dam failure probability. Finally, a certain concrete dam in Yalong River was used as the modeling object and the result indicates that the obtained early-warning index can describe objectively the actual status of dam engineering.