基于SWAT模型的高寒区可能最大洪水计算方法研究

Calculation Method Study of Probable Maximum Flood in Alpine and Cold Region Based on SWAT Model

以嘉玉桥水文站所控制的怒江上游流域为研究对象,采用组合暴雨放大法推求流域长历时可能最大降水(PMP)过程;采用SWAT分布式水文模型由PMP推求可能最大洪水(PMF),建立了怒江上游地区的SWAT模型,并根据嘉玉桥水文站的实测流量资料对模型进行了率定和验证;将可能最大降水过程输入到SWAT模型,得到嘉玉桥站的可能最大洪水过程。结果表明,高寒地区采用SWAT模型结合可能最大降水推求可能最大洪水是可行的。

Taking the upstream area of Jiayuqiao Hydrological Station in Nujiang River as study object, the Probable Maximum Precipitation （PMP） of watershed are derived by maximizing the combination of storms, and then the Probable Maximum Flood （PMF） is calculated on the basis of PMP by using SWAT model. The SWAT model applied to source region of Nujiang River is established and the parameters of model are calibrated and validated according to measured data of Jiayuqiao Hydrological Station. Then the PMF of Jiayuqiao Hydrological Station will be obtained by inputting PMP to SWAT model. The calculation results show that it is a feasible way to calculate PMF by using SWAT model combined with PMP for alpine and cold region.