经济增长理论创新及其对中国经济的实践意义——兼论如何重开中国经济高增长之门

Theoretical Innovation of Economic Growth and Its Practical Significance to China's Economy:And on How to Reopen the Door of China's High Economic Growth

本文在充分理解马克思关于资本主义生产理论的基础上重新审视了经典经济增长理论,指出了两种理论逻辑的基本差异;在强调货币数量直接推动虚拟经济GDP增长的几个基本事实的基础上,阐述了虚拟经济自我膨胀的机制及其本质;从制度因素对经济增长影响的角度,比较了市场经济是最优资源配置机制的理论与马克思认为市场自发配置资源会导致周期性经济危机从而周期性大规模破坏生产力的理论,并根据历史事实指出了为什么市场经济只有第三条道路可走。在上述基础上,创立了以产业创新为核心的经济增长理论,阐述了技术进步、金融创新以及制度因素等直接推动经济增长的核心机制;用此经济增长理论解释了中国前30年经济高增长的基本路径;比较了中美产业结构差异,对服务业带动中国经济继续高增长的前景进行了估测;明确了下半段经济改革的基本方向和核心问题。

On the basis of fully understanding Marxist theory of capitalist production,this paper reexamines the classical economic growth theory and points out the basic differences between the two kinds of theoretical logic.This paper expounds the mechanism and nature of self-expansion of fictitious economy on the basis of emphasizing the basic facts that the quantity of money directly promotes the growth of fictitious economy＇s GDP.From the perspective of the influence of institutional factors on economic growth,this paper compares the theory that the market economy is the most optimal mechanism of resource allocation and Marist threory that the market＇s spontaneous allocation of resources will lead to periodic crises and cyclical large-scale destruction of productive forces.Based on historical facts,this paper points out the reason why only the third way is available for market economy.On the basis of the above,this paper sets up the theory of economic growth based on industrial innovation,expounds the coremechanism of technological progress,financial innovation and institutional factors to promote economic growth directly,and use this economic theory to explain the basic path of China＇s high economic growth in the first 30 years.This paper compares the industrial structure differences between China and the United States,and estimates the prospects for China＇s sustained high growth in the service sector.It clarifies the basic direction and core issues of the economic reform in the second half of reform.