抵制日货运动的贸易效应探究——以1927年为例的经验分析

On the Trade Effect of Boycott towards Japanese Goods:An Empirical Analysis based on Chinese Modern Trade Data

考察直接的贸易效应,既是理清抵货运动经济效应的起点,又能从一个侧面评论中国人民反帝爱国运动的成效,还有助于揭示特定时期中国民族工业得以发展的部分原因。本文旨在考察近代中国半殖民地半封建社会的抵货运动对洋货进口是否产生了显著的抑制作用。以1927年爆发的大规模抵制日货运动为案例,使用1926年至1928年中国从17个贸易伙伴细分商品的进口数据,运用倍差法进行定量分析,本文稳健地证实了此次抵货运动对日本产品输入中国产生了显著的抑制作用,并识别出对纺织品的抑制效应大于其他行业产品,对初级产品的抑制效应大于工业制成品。

This paper aims to explore whether Chinese people＇s boycott towards foreign products had a significant restraining effect in modern period. Focusing on the boycott occurred in 1927, we employ product- level data on Chinese import from seventeen trade partners from 1926 to 1928 to run an empirical analysis. By utilizing a difference-in-differences approach, we approve that this movement restrained Japanese products into Chinese market significantly, and the result is robust. Furthermore, we find the restraining effect on textiles larger than other products, and the effect on primary products larger than the manufactured goods.