二维信号离散行为空间中的羊群行为

Herd Behavior in Two-Dimensional Signal and Discrete Action Space

笔者基于"离散行为空间导致羊群行为"模型,通过放松私人信号假设,引入二维不确定信号,分析此"二维信号离散行为空间"中的羊群行为的产生过程与产生机理。笔者运用数学建模来分析二维不确定信号——是否获得信号以及信号是否准确,对羊群行为的产生时间以及概率的影响,推导出羊群行为产生时间以及产生概率与信号参数的具体关系式,并且运用MATLAB生成图像分析二维不确定信号参数变化对羊群行为的影响趋势。研究发现,通过引入二维不确定信号,羊群行为不会像在"一维信号离散行为空间"中那样确定产生,"二维信号离散行为空间"中羊群行为的产生与信号参数相关,并且获得信息概率这一信号参数的单向变化,对羊群行为有促进和抑制两方面的作用。研究结果对投资行为和市场监管具有指导作用,在维护投资市场公平、有序、高效运行方面具有一定的现实意义。

This paper is based on the herd behavior due to discrete action space which is discussed in Bikhchandani et al. （1992）. We relax the assumption about individual signal, introduce the two-dimensional uncertain signal, and investigate the process and mechanism of herd behavior in two-dimensional signal and discrete action space. The two dimensions of the uncertain signal indicate whether the individual receives a sig- nal or not and whether the signal is true or not. We obtain the definite relationship between the generation of herd behavior and signal parameters by using mathematical modeling. The effect on herd behavior can be ana- lyzed by changing signal parameters through to Bikhchandani space certainly. the graph generated in MATLAB. Our result shows that in contrast et al. （1992）, herd behavior can not arise in two-dimensional signal and discrete action The monotone change of the parameter which indicates the probability of receiving a signal has both positive and negative effects on herd behavior. This new finding not only has the role of guidance on individual investment and financial market supervision, but also has the practical significance to maintain fair,orderly, and efficient investment market.