如何成为明星分析师? 分析师上榜新财富决定因素研究

How to Become a Star-Analyst? Evidence from New Fortune' s Analysts Ranking

笔者以2005—2015年上市公司的财报数据、分析师的盈余预测数据、新财富分析师上榜数据为样本,研究影响分析师能否上榜新财富的决定性因素以及机构投资者对分析师的评价标准。实证结果发现,分析师盈余预测的准确性和分析师研报的发布频率提高了分析师上榜新财富的可能性,盈余预测的大胆性对上榜没有影响,分析师的经验、所在券商大小对上榜新财富有影响,上榜分析师的预测相对保守。对于首次上榜的分析师,经验的贡献为负,上榜新财富还是比拼个人能力,不仅仅是经验的积累和所在券商的资源;此外分析师盈余预测报告发布的频率对分析师首次上榜新财富的贡献为正。机构投资者在评选新财富最佳分析师时也更加看重分析师的能力,是否上榜新财富是对分析师的工作能力的一种肯定。研究结论有助于资本市场参与者了解影响分析师新财富上榜的决定因素,从而为自己的投资决策提出指导。

Based on the data of financial statements, analysts＇ earning estimation and New Fortune＇s Analysts Ranking from year of 2005 to 2015, this paper studies the key determinants of analyst that ranked as a star analyst on New Fortune＇s Analysts Ranking. As revealed by the data, the accuracy and forecast frequency of analysts＇ earnings estimation improve the probability of being a staranalyst, while estimation boldness does play an insignificant role in the estimation. Analysts＇ experience and employer do affect the probability of being ranked but both are not the key factors, while estimations indiate that ranked analysts are more conservative than non-ranked analysts. Experience contributes negatively for analysts who are ranked for the 1st time on New Fortune＇s Analysts Ranking, while forecast frequency contributes positively. In conclusion, institutional inves- tors view analysts＇ talent as the most important factor on New Fortune＇s Analysts Ranking and the ranking is a reward for more talented analysts. The conclusion helps financial market players learn the key factors of New Fortune＇s Analysts